A political solution will cause economic boom at Cyprus’ ports of departure

Dr Aris Petasis

1. Much debate has been going on recently over the issue of whether or not there will be an “…..economic explosion after the solution of the Cyprus problem.”  I herewith add my voice to the debate.  Yes, I believe that a solution will bring with it an economic explosion provided this solution establishes for Cyprus a polity similar to that of democratic countries with developed economies (e.g. Germany, the USA, Australia, Britain, the Scandinavian countries, Japan, and so on.) 

The political systems of economically developed democracies: a.) promote stability in the country, b.) provide for a dead-lock-free government that can take political and economic decisions, c.) provide for a democratic system that protects fully people’s human rights, d.) guarantee people unhindered freedom of movement and settlement throughout the country with the citizen voting in his/her place of residence, e.) ensure that people’s right to buy and sell property (houses, land, etc) and to transact business anywhere in the country freely and f.) provide for a unified economy.

2. The target solution to the Cyprus problem of Bizonal – Bicommunal Federation (BBF) has absolutely no relation to the political systems of the countries above that are bench-marks of economic activity.  On the contrary, the envisaged BBF is the antithesis of the political systems of these economically successful countries.  BBF segregates people, splinters the economy and the security forces and puts the country under the suzerainty of Turkey.  The BBF: a.) fast-tracks economic and political division and instability, b.) frightens investors away from Cyprus.  Who in his right mind would invest in a country that no one will know who is running the government considering that the central government will be a phantom; who would invest in Cyprus’ energy reserves knowing that the central government will be in permanent dead-lock and will need Turkey’s approval;  c.) creates two parallel antagonistic economies without any central authority in a country of just 9.240 square kilometres, d. ) imposes unbearable tax burdens to cover, for example, the operation of three distinct and competing police forces.  The plan under discussion provides for 1,400 policemen plus 6 policemen for every 1000 population plus a “central government” police force—I kindly ask the reader to do his/her own calculations on a population base of 1.2million.  The taxpayer will be called upon to pay the salaries and benefits of the current 65,000 public sector employees of the one constituent “state” and about 35,000 (conservatively) employees of the other.  Additionally, the taxpayer will support 3 governments, 4 parliaments, 2 highly-paid officers for each senior position (to ensure deadlock for ever!), 3 ministerial councils and so on.  Furthermore, the economy will lose valuable land to foreign armies that will be stationed in Cyprus: 6 military camps for the Turkish army (the size of which Turkey will decide), 6 for the Greek army with the British having its own bases; plus, 3 shooting ranges for each foreign army.  The Cyprus landscape will be dotted with: 12 military camps, 6 shooting ranges plus 2% of Cyprus’ land for the British army reminding the investor of a country under asphyxiation.  The list of unbearable and debilitating economic burdens is endless and cannot logically be covered in this essay.        

3. An agreed BBF would automatically mean, without a shadow of a doubt, the dissolution of the Republic of Cyprus (CR).  Turkey will never accept a BBF solution that fails to destroy the Republic of Cyprus.  A BBF agreement will automatically trigger an economic explosion at every point of departure out of Cyprus because the indigenous Cypriots will emigrate en masse to foreign lands (gradually most will leave—see the case of Lebanon below.) The packers of personal effects will do brisk business; so will the airlines, shipping lines, clearing agents, container and warehousing businesses, trucking companies, hauliers and any other business involved in emigration out of Cyprus.  Lebanon has in place a constitution that is treacherously undemocratic and divisive and brings the government to gridlock.  This constitution was foisted on the country by the same outsiders that today support the BBF solution for Cyprus. The ceaseless instability and deadlocks that this undemocratic constitution creates forced millions of Lebanese to leave their country.  Many of those that stayed behind hold second [foreign] passports in readiness for departure at short notice.  More Lebanese now live outside Lebanon than inside.  For the economy of Cyprus the BBF solution is a weapon of mass destruction.  With the economy still breathing today and with the CR still standing on its feet, 10.000 promising young men and women left the country for economic reasons and another 10,000 that graduated decided to stay abroad.  One can easily imagine what will happen to the emigration numbers when a BBF solution crushes the CR and devastates the economy.  I close with this axiom: “political systems and economic development are two totally interlinked concepts.”.